What could cause a sudden increase in transactional email bounce rates, and how can it be diagnosed?

Summary

A sudden increase in transactional email bounce rates can be triggered by a multitude of factors spanning from list quality to sender reputation and technical configurations. Sending to outdated or invalid email addresses, hitting spam traps, or being marked as spam by recipients can significantly damage sender reputation. List decay, stemming from inactive or non-existent addresses, and changes in spam filtering policies by ISPs also contribute. Being added to a blocklist prevents email delivery and results in bounces. Bounce types (hard, soft, block) reflect different underlying issues. Diagnosing the root cause necessitates examining actual rejection messages, analyzing SMTP error codes, and leveraging feedback loops from ESPs like Amazon SES, Google, and Microsoft. Maintaining list hygiene, implementing email authentication protocols (SPF, DKIM, DMARC), using email verification services, and regularly monitoring sender reputation are crucial preventive measures. Additionally, issues with specific email providers (e.g., Hotmail/Outlook, Comcast) may not be related to Google/Yahoo requirements.

Key findings

  • Invalid Addresses: Outdated, invalid, or inactive email addresses are a major cause of increased bounce rates.
  • Sender Reputation: Damaged sender reputation due to spam complaints or blocklisting significantly increases bounce rates.
  • List Hygiene: Poorly maintained email lists with inactive subscribers and unvalidated addresses contribute to higher bounce rates.
  • Bounce Types: Different bounce types (hard, soft, block) indicate various underlying issues, necessitating targeted diagnostic approaches.
  • Authentication: Lack of proper email authentication (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) can lead to increased bounce rates and emails being marked as spam.
  • ISP Policies: Changes in spam filtering policies by ISPs can suddenly trigger an increase in bounce rates.
  • Blocklisting: Being added to a blocklist prevents delivery and results in bounces.
  • Rejection Messages: Analysing actual rejection messages including domain and IPs, is vital for understanding bounce origins and the specific reason codes

Key considerations

  • Examine Rejection Messages: Carefully examine actual rejection messages, including the domain and IPs involved.
  • Monitor SMTP Codes: Pay close attention to SMTP error codes provided by ESPs to identify the specific reasons for bounces.
  • Maintain List Hygiene: Regularly clean your email list by removing inactive subscribers and validating email addresses.
  • Verify Email Addresses: Use an email verification service to validate email addresses before sending campaigns.
  • Implement Authentication: Implement SPF, DKIM, and DMARC to authenticate your emails and improve deliverability.
  • Monitor Reputation: Use tools like Google Postmaster Tools to monitor your sender reputation and spam rates.
  • Check Blocklists: Regularly check if sending IPs or domains are listed on common blocklists.
  • Utilize ESP Support: Contact your ESP's support for assistance in analyzing rejection messages and diagnosing bounce issues.
  • Differentiate Bounce Types: Differentiate between temporary failures, permanent failures, and block bounces for better problem identification

What email marketers say
10Marketer opinions

A sudden increase in transactional email bounce rates can stem from multiple factors. These include sending emails to outdated or invalid addresses, encountering spam traps, or recipients marking emails as spam, which negatively impacts sender reputation. Issues with email lists, such as decay or the presence of invalid addresses, contribute to higher bounce rates. Changes in spam filtering policies by ISPs and deliverability issues related to domain reputation can also cause sudden spikes. Identifying the type of bounce (hard or soft) is important, as hard bounces are permanent failures due to invalid addresses, while soft bounces are temporary. Diagnosing the root cause requires examining bounce codes, working with ESPs (Email Service Providers), and employing tools to monitor sender reputation and feedback loops. Implementing email authentication protocols (SPF, DKIM, DMARC), maintaining list hygiene, and using email verification services are crucial for prevention.

Key opinions

  • Invalid Addresses: Sending to outdated, invalid, or inactive email addresses significantly increases bounce rates.
  • Sender Reputation: Spam reports and being added to blocklists damage sender reputation, leading to higher bounce rates.
  • List Hygiene: Poor list hygiene, including a lack of regular cleaning and validation, contributes to bounce issues.
  • Bounce Types: Hard bounces are permanent failures, while soft bounces are temporary, indicating different underlying issues.
  • Authentication: Lack of proper email authentication (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) can lead to emails being marked as spam and bouncing.
  • ISP Policies: Changes in spam filtering policies by ISPs can suddenly increase bounce rates.

Key considerations

  • Monitor Bounce Codes: Regularly check and analyze bounce codes provided by your ESP to understand the specific reasons for bounces.
  • Clean Email List: Implement a regular process to remove inactive subscribers and invalid email addresses from your list.
  • Verify Addresses: Use an email verification service to validate email addresses before sending campaigns.
  • Authenticate Emails: Implement SPF, DKIM, and DMARC to authenticate your emails and improve deliverability.
  • Monitor Reputation: Use tools like Google Postmaster Tools to monitor your sender reputation and spam rates.
  • ESP Collaboration: Work closely with your ESP to diagnose and address the root causes of increased bounce rates.
Marketer view

Email marketer from Mailjet explains that several factors can cause high bounce rates, including sending to outdated or invalid email addresses, spam traps, or when recipients mark emails as spam, damaging your sender reputation. The email might be flagged as spam if the content is suspicious.

August 2022 - Mailjet
Marketer view

Email marketer from Email Geeks shares that issues with Hotmail/Outlook or Comcast are not related to Google/Yahoo requirements.

July 2024 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Email marketer from GMass explains that implementing email authentication protocols (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) helps establish trust with email providers and can prevent emails from being marked as spam, reducing bounce rates.

September 2021 - GMass
Marketer view

Email marketer from HubSpot explains that bounce rates can be hard bounces (permanent) or soft bounces (temporary). Hard bounces are due to invalid email addresses and soft bounces are due to temporary problems like a full inbox or server issues.

July 2024 - HubSpot
Marketer view

Email marketer from Email Marketing Forum shares that examining bounce codes and working with your ESP to understand the reasons for bounces is essential for diagnosing and addressing the root cause.

September 2023 - Email Marketing Forum
Marketer view

Email marketer from Constant Contact explains that to reduce bounce rates, you should regularly clean your email list to remove invalid addresses, use double opt-in for subscriptions, authenticate your email, and monitor your sender reputation.

August 2021 - Constant Contact
Marketer view

Email marketer from Litmus explains that maintaining list hygiene by regularly removing inactive subscribers and validating email addresses can prevent sending to invalid addresses and improve sender reputation.

December 2021 - Litmus
Marketer view

Email marketer from ZeroBounce shares that using an email verification service to validate email addresses before sending campaigns helps identify and remove invalid or risky addresses, preventing bounces and protecting sender reputation.

October 2022 - ZeroBounce
Marketer view

Email marketer from Reddit shares that sudden bounce increases are caused by list decay, changes in spam filtering policies by ISPs, or deliverability issues related to domain reputation.

February 2025 - Reddit
Marketer view

Email marketer from Sendinblue explains that high bounce rates happen when sending emails to invalid or non-existent email addresses and using outdated email lists. They also state that spam filters and sender reputation play a huge part.

January 2023 - Sendinblue

What the experts say
4Expert opinions

A sudden increase in transactional email bounce rates can often be attributed to blocklisting or delivery failures. It is crucial to examine the actual rejection messages, including the domain and IPs, to understand where the rejections are occurring. Rejection messages typically start with three digits, and ESP (Email Service Provider) support can be valuable in analyzing these messages. Bounce categories, such as temporary failures, permanent failures, and block bounces, should be differentiated to determine the root cause. Checking SMTP codes is necessary for diagnosis, and verifying if sending IPs or domains are listed on common blocklists is essential to identify blocklisting issues.

Key opinions

  • Rejection Messages: Examining actual rejection messages, including domain and IPs, is vital for understanding bounce origins.
  • SMTP Codes: Checking SMTP codes is necessary for correctly diagnosing the root cause of email bouncebacks
  • Bounce Categories: Differentiating between temporary failures, permanent failures, and block bounces is essential for root cause analysis.
  • Blocklisting: Sudden increases in bounce rates may be caused by being added to a blocklist.

Key considerations

  • ESP Support: Contact ESP support for assistance in analyzing rejection messages and diagnosing bounce issues.
  • Blocklist Checks: Regularly check if sending IPs or domains are listed on common blocklists.
Expert view

Expert from Email Geeks explains that rejection messages will start with three digits and suggests contacting the ESP's support for help, including providing sample rejection messages.

December 2022 - Email Geeks
Expert view

Expert from Email Geeks explains that to understand bounce rates, it's important to examine the actual rejection messages, including the domain and IPs being sent from and where they're being rejected.

January 2025 - Email Geeks
Expert view

Expert from Spam Resource (Steve Linford) shares that sudden bounce rate increases are often caused by being added to a blocklist. Blocklisting prevents delivery, resulting in bounces, and diagnosis involves checking if your sending IPs or domains are listed on common blocklists.

September 2023 - Spam Resource
Expert view

Expert from Word to the Wise (Laura Atkins) explains that bounces fall into a few major categories, temporary failures, permanent failures, and block bounces, and it's important to differentiate between them to diagnose the root cause of the bounce. Checking the SMTP codes are necessary for diagnosis

July 2024 - Word to the Wise

What the documentation says
5Technical articles

Understanding and addressing increased transactional email bounce rates involves utilizing various tools and mechanisms provided by email service providers and standards. Amazon SES offers SNS notifications, automatic suppression, and feedback loops. SMTP uses error codes, which are three-digit codes, to indicate the reason for the bounce. SparkPost classifies bounces based on these SMTP codes. Google Postmaster Tools helps monitor sender reputation, spam rates, and feedback loops. Outlook.com also provides feedback loop mechanisms and sender support. Analyzing the SMTP codes is essential for diagnosing the reason for the bounce.

Key findings

  • SMTP Error Codes: SMTP utilizes three-digit error codes to specify the reason an email bounced, and analyzing these is crucial for diagnosis.
  • Bounce Classification: Bounces can be classified into different types, such as hard, soft, or technical failures, based on SMTP response codes.
  • Feedback Loops: Platforms like Amazon SES and Outlook.com provide feedback loops to help diagnose and address deliverability issues.
  • Monitoring Tools: Google Postmaster Tools allows monitoring of sender reputation, spam rates, and feedback loop data to identify deliverability problems.

Key considerations

  • Implement SNS Notifications: Use Amazon SES's SNS notifications to receive real-time bounce alerts.
  • Analyze SMTP Codes: Pay close attention to SMTP error codes to understand the specific reasons for bounces.
  • Monitor Reputation: Regularly monitor sender reputation using tools like Google Postmaster Tools.
  • Utilize Feedback Loops: Leverage feedback loops provided by ESPs such as Outlook.com to address deliverability issues.
Technical article

Documentation from Microsoft explains that Outlook.com provides feedback loop mechanisms and sender support resources to help diagnose and address deliverability issues, including bounces, that can impact sender reputation and email placement.

March 2024 - Microsoft
Technical article

Documentation from SparkPost explains that bounces are classified based on SMTP response codes from the receiving mail server. This classification helps diagnose the reason for the bounce, categorizing them as hard, soft, or technical failures.

June 2022 - SparkPost
Technical article

Documentation from RFC Editor explains that SMTP (Simple Mail Transfer Protocol) uses a series of error codes to identify the reason an email bounced. The codes are three digits long where the first number indicates whether the response is good, bad, or incomplete. Looking into the specific code is necessary for diagnosin.

May 2024 - RFC Editor
Technical article

Documentation from Amazon AWS explains that Amazon SES provides multiple methods for handling bounces, including using Amazon Simple Notification Service (SNS) to receive notifications, automatically suppressing addresses from future sends, and providing a feedback loop for bounce events.

March 2022 - Amazon AWS
Technical article

Documentation from Google explains that using Google Postmaster Tools to monitor sender reputation, spam rate, and feedback loop data is essential for identifying deliverability issues that may contribute to higher bounce rates.

March 2025 - Google Postmaster Tools