Why are open rates increasing and what does it mean for email marketing analysis?

Summary

Increasing email open rates are driven by factors like image prefetching (Google, Yahoo, business filters), Apple's Mail Privacy Protection (MPP), and improved sender reputation or inbox placement. While prefetching signals inbox arrival, MPP inflates open rates, making genuine engagement harder to measure. Traditional open tracking is becoming less reliable due to privacy measures and client configurations. Thus, solely relying on open rates is insufficient. A more comprehensive analysis requires considering click-through rates, website visits, conversions, and other engagement metrics. Segmentation, personalization, A/B testing, and maintaining strong sender reputation through authentication protocols (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) are crucial for effective email marketing analysis and deliverability.

Key findings

  • Prefetching Impact: Image prefetching by various services inflates open rates.
  • MPP Inflation: Apple's Mail Privacy Protection significantly increases reported open rates without indicating genuine engagement.
  • Tracking Unreliability: Traditional open tracking methods are becoming less reliable due to privacy features.
  • Authentication Importance: Sender reputation and domain authentication (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) are essential for inbox placement.
  • Holistic Analysis Needed: A comprehensive email marketing analysis requires considering multiple engagement metrics, not just open rates.

Key considerations

  • Shift Focus: Shift focus from solely relying on open rates to a broader range of engagement metrics (CTR, conversions, website visits).
  • Monitor Trends: Monitor open rate trends rather than focusing on absolute numbers, and compare trends across segments.
  • Implement Authentication: Implement and maintain SPF, DKIM, and DMARC to improve sender reputation and deliverability.
  • Prioritize Segmentation: Segment audiences and personalize content to improve relevance and engagement.
  • Regular A/B Testing: Continuously A/B test subject lines and email designs to optimize performance.

What email marketers say
9Marketer opinions

The increase in email open rates is a complex issue influenced by several factors, including Apple's Mail Privacy Protection (MPP), sender reputation, subject line relevance, and list hygiene. MPP inflates open rates by pre-loading images, making it harder to discern genuine engagement. While misleading, open rates still offer insights into subject line effectiveness and overall campaign performance when analyzed with trends and segmentation. As such, marketers are encouraged to shift their focus towards more reliable metrics such as click-through rates, website visits, and conversions. Strategies like audience segmentation, personalization, A/B testing, monitoring sender scores, and implementing email authentication protocols (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) remain crucial for improving email marketing analysis.

Key opinions

  • MPP Impact: Apple's Mail Privacy Protection inflates open rates, creating inaccurate metrics.
  • Multifaceted Analysis: Open rates should be analyzed in conjunction with other metrics for a comprehensive understanding.
  • Alternative KPIs: Click-through rates, website visits, and conversions are becoming more reliable primary KPIs.
  • Segmentation & Personalization: Segmenting audiences and personalizing content can drive higher engagement.
  • Authentication Importance: Sender reputation and domain authentication are crucial for inbox placement and open rates.
  • External Factors: Open rates can also vary because of the day of the week, time of the day, type of list, and customer age.

Key considerations

  • Cross-Reference Metrics: Always cross-reference open rates with click-through rates, website visits, and conversions to assess genuine engagement.
  • A/B Testing: Implement A/B testing for subject lines and email designs to optimize performance.
  • Sender Reputation: Monitor sender scores and implement SPF, DKIM, and DMARC to maintain a positive sender reputation.
  • List Hygiene: Maintain clean and segmented email lists to improve deliverability and engagement.
  • Trend Analysis: Track trends and compare open rates across different segments to identify meaningful patterns.
Marketer view

Email marketer from SuperOffice recommends measuring a variety of metrics such as open rate, click-through rate, conversion rate, bounce rate and unsubscribe rate in order to effectively analyse email marketing success. They add that the best way to improve is through testing.

February 2022 - SuperOffice
Marketer view

Email marketer from HubSpot shares that rising open rates might indicate improved sender reputation, better subject line relevance, or cleaner email lists. However, it's essential to cross-reference with other metrics like click-through rates and conversion rates to ensure genuine engagement is increasing.

November 2023 - HubSpot
Marketer view

Email marketer from Gmass states that various factors such as day of the week, time of the day, type of list, and customer age are the core reasons for open rate variations and should be closely monitored for successful email marketing campaigns.

September 2022 - Gmass
Marketer view

Email marketer from Reddit mentions that MPP has forced marketers to shift focus from open rates to click-through rates, website visits, and conversions as primary KPIs. They suggest using open rates as a directional metric but not relying solely on them for decision-making.

January 2023 - Reddit
Marketer view

Email marketer from EmailToolTester explains that open rates can be misleading due to MPP and other privacy features, but they still offer insights into subject line effectiveness and overall campaign performance. Analyzing trends and comparing open rates across different segments can provide valuable data.

July 2022 - EmailToolTester
Marketer view

Email marketer from ActiveCampaign explains that sender reputation and domain authentication are crucial for inbox placement and, consequently, open rates. They recommend monitoring sender scores and implementing SPF, DKIM, and DMARC to improve deliverability.

October 2022 - ActiveCampaign
Marketer view

Email marketer from Moosend states that the solution to rising fake opens is to look beyond the open rate and instead measure metrics like click-through rates, website visits, and conversions as primary KPIs. This will allow for more accurate data collection and analysis.

June 2021 - Moosend
Marketer view

Email marketer from Litmus explains that Apple's Mail Privacy Protection (MPP) inflates open rates by pre-loading images for users who have opted in, leading to inaccurate metrics. This makes it harder to discern genuine engagement from pre-fetched opens.

May 2021 - Litmus
Marketer view

Email marketer from MarketingProfs shares that segmenting audiences and personalizing email content can lead to higher open rates and engagement. They emphasize the importance of A/B testing subject lines and email designs to optimize performance.

October 2021 - MarketingProfs

What the experts say
5Expert opinions

The increase in email open rates is influenced by factors such as image prefetching by Google, Yahoo, and business filters, and Apple's Mail Privacy Protection (MPP). Prefetching confirms inbox placement and regular mailbox checks but may not represent genuine opens. A significant increase in open rates could indicate movement from the promo tab to the inbox, improved reputation, or changes in Google's proxy IPs. MPP inflates open rates and complicates analysis, making open rates less meaningful as a sole metric. A multi-faceted analytical approach, considering other engagement metrics, is essential for an accurate understanding of campaign performance. Moreover, pre-fetched opens could represent eventual real opens and excluding them could lead to undercounting. Trend analysis, rather than pinpointing 'real opens', is the suggested approach.

Key opinions

  • Image Prefetching: Google, Yahoo, and business filters prefetch images, inflating open rates.
  • Possible Reasons: Increased open rates might indicate movement from promo to inbox, improved reputation, or changes in proxy IPs.
  • MPP Impact: MPP complicates email marketing analysis by inflating open rates.
  • Metric Evolution: Privacy changes are rendering open rates less meaningful as a standalone metric.
  • Real Opens: Prefetched opens could still represent eventual real opens.

Key considerations

  • Multifaceted Analysis: Adopt a multi-faceted approach considering various engagement metrics, not just open rates.
  • Trend Over Precision: Focus on analyzing trends rather than trying to determine exact real open rates.
  • Contextual Awareness: Be aware that prefetching confirms inbox placement but doesn't guarantee user engagement.
  • Adapting Strategies: Adapt your email marketing strategies in response to privacy changes and the evolving nature of email metrics.
Expert view

Expert from Email Geeks explains that Google, Yahoo, and business filters prefetch images, indicating the mail reached the inbox and the mailbox is regularly checked. This means the email ended up in the recipient's inbox and that the mailbox is regularly checked. That's all.

January 2022 - Email Geeks
Expert view

Expert from Email Geeks shares that a significant increase in open rates could mean the email moved from the promo tab to the inbox, reputation improved leading to more image prefetching, the mail moved out of spam, or Google is using different proxy IPs not previously filtered.

April 2024 - Email Geeks
Expert view

Expert from Word to the Wise, Laura Atkins, discusses how metrics have become less meaningful and how marketers need to adapt their analysis accordingly. With privacy changes, focusing solely on open rates is no longer sufficient and a multi-faceted view is necessary.

February 2025 - Word to the Wise
Expert view

Expert from Email Geeks shares that like MPP opens, prefetched opens could represent the eventual real open so excluding them could result in undercounting. It's best to use the metric as an overall trend rather than trying to figure out 'real opens'.

September 2022 - Email Geeks
Expert view

Expert contributors from Word to the Wise explain the challenges posed by Apple's Mail Privacy Protection (MPP). MPP inflates open rates and therefore complicates analysis. It also suggests that marketers must focus on other engagement metrics and strategies for a more complete understanding of campaign performance.

December 2024 - Word to the Wise

What the documentation says
6Technical articles

Email open rate tracking, traditionally achieved by embedding invisible images, is becoming less reliable due to privacy protections and image blocking. Spam filters, email client settings, and recipient configurations significantly affect open rates. Sender reputation, email authentication (SPF, DKIM, DMARC), and list hygiene are crucial for inbox placement. DKIM and SPF help ensure message authenticity and prevent spoofing, while DMARC builds on these to give domain owners more control over email handling. Accurately tracking opens is challenging due to varying client settings and privacy measures; using read receipts or third-party tools might be necessary but still unreliable.

Key findings

  • Open Tracking Limitations: Traditional open tracking methods are becoming less reliable due to privacy protections.
  • Impact Factors: Spam filters, client settings, and image blocking significantly affect open rates.
  • Authentication Importance: SPF, DKIM, and DMARC improve email deliverability and prevent spoofing, aiding inbox placement.
  • Tracking Challenges: Accurately tracking opens is challenging due to varying client settings and privacy measures.
  • Sender Reputation Matters: Sender reputation and list hygiene are crucial factors for email reaching inboxes.

Key considerations

  • Privacy Awareness: Be aware of increasing privacy protections affecting open rate reliability.
  • Authentication Implementation: Implement SPF, DKIM, and DMARC to improve email authentication and sender reputation.
  • List Management: Maintain clean and well-managed email lists to improve deliverability.
  • Alternative Metrics: Consider focusing on alternative metrics in addition to open rates to assess campaign performance accurately.
  • Client Variations: Acknowledge that open tracking accuracy varies depending on email client and settings.
Technical article

Documentation from DMARC.org explains that DMARC (Domain-based Message Authentication, Reporting & Conformance) is an email authentication protocol. It builds upon SPF and DKIM to provide domain owners with more control over how email is handled by receiving mail servers.

December 2021 - dmarc.org
Technical article

Documentation from Microsoft Support explains that tracking email opens in Outlook requires enabling read receipts or using third-party tools. They highlight the challenges in accurately tracking opens due to varying email client configurations and privacy settings.

April 2022 - Microsoft Support
Technical article

Documentation from RFC explains that SPF is an email authentication system designed to prevent email spoofing. It allows domain owners to specify which mail servers are authorized to send email on behalf of their domain.

July 2022 - RFC
Technical article

Documentation from Mailchimp explains that open tracking relies on embedding a small, invisible image in the email. When the recipient's email client loads the image, it's recorded as an open. However, this method is becoming less reliable due to privacy protections that block image loading or pre-fetch images automatically.

August 2024 - Mailchimp
Technical article

Documentation from RFC explains that DKIM provides a method for verifying the authenticity of email messages. By digitally signing emails, senders can prove that the message hasn't been tampered with during transit, increasing the likelihood of inbox placement.

January 2022 - RFC
Technical article

Documentation from Sendinblue shares that factors like spam filters, email client settings, and image blocking significantly affect open rates. Additionally, they say that sender reputation, authentication (SPF, DKIM, DMARC), and list hygiene play a crucial role in whether emails reach the inbox and get opened, or not.

October 2024 - Sendinblue