Why are Gmail open rates suddenly decreasing?

Summary

A sudden decrease in Gmail open rates is a complex issue with several potential causes, ranging from seasonal trends and algorithmic changes to sender reputation, list hygiene, and user behavior. Experts, marketers, and documentation emphasize the importance of continuous monitoring, proactive adjustments, and adherence to best practices to mitigate the impact of these factors and maintain healthy email engagement.

Key findings

  • Seasonal Trends: Holidays can lead to crowded inboxes and decreased engagement.
  • Algorithm Changes: Gmail might tweak algorithms, affecting filtering even with good reputation.
  • False Perspective: Declines may be a false reading due to Google caching trackers.
  • Volume Impact: Increased volume, especially to inactive users, hurts open rates.
  • User Behavior: Users are more selective, impacting open rates.
  • Stricter Spam Thresholds: Gmail is tightening spam rate thresholds.
  • Red Light Green Light: Gmail may temporarily penalize senders.
  • Bulk Folder Placement: Emails going to the bulk/promotions folder reduce open rates.
  • Image Pre-fetching: Google may not pre-fetch images, signaling reputation issues.
  • List Hygiene: Poor list hygiene lowers engagement and deliverability.
  • Email Fatigue: Sending too many emails fatigues subscribers.
  • MPP Impact: Apple's MPP skews open rate metrics.
  • Blocklisting: Being blocklisted drastically reduces deliverability.
  • Spam Traps: Hitting spam traps damages reputation and deliverability.

Key considerations

  • Monitor Metrics: Track open rates, clicks, sender reputation, and inbox placement.
  • Segment Data: Segment audiences based on engagement and tailor content.
  • Practice Hygiene: Clean lists regularly by removing inactive subscribers.
  • Optimize Content: Craft relevant subject lines and engaging content.
  • A/B Test: Continually test subject lines, content, and sending times.
  • Adjust Sending Frequency: Avoid sending too many emails to the same subscribers.
  • Monitor Sender Score: Monitor and maintain a healthy sender score.
  • Check Blocklists: Check blocklist status and take action if listed.
  • Follow Best Practices: Adhere to email marketing best practices to avoid spam traps.
  • Measure Inbox Placement: Measure inbox placement over time, not just deliverability.
  • Stabilize Open Rates: Focus on recent engaged subs, phase in the less engaged.
  • Adapt to MPP: Adapt email performance due to Apple Mail Privacy

What email marketers say
15Marketer opinions

A sudden decrease in Gmail open rates can be attributed to a multitude of factors, ranging from seasonal trends and algorithm changes to email volume, sender reputation, and user behavior. Monitoring and adapting to these factors is crucial for maintaining healthy open rates.

Key opinions

  • Seasonal Impact: Holidays often lead to crowded inboxes and decreased engagement.
  • Algorithm Tweaks: Gmail's algorithm changes can impact email filtering, even with good sender reputation.
  • False Perspective: Open rate decline might be a false perspective caused by Google caching trackers.
  • Volume Increase: Increased email volume, especially to inactive contacts, lowers average open rates.
  • User Behavior: Changes in user behavior, such as increased selectivity, can decrease open rates.
  • Spam Thresholds: Gmail is becoming stricter with spam rate thresholds.
  • Red Light Green Light: Gmail might temporarily reduce engagement for certain senders, requiring adjustments.
  • Email Fatigue: Sending too many emails can lead to email fatigue, decreasing open rates.
  • Mobile Shifts: Users may be shifting towards mobile devices for reading emails.
  • Deliverability Issues: Emails landing in spam folders lead to reduced open rates.

Key considerations

  • Monitor Metrics: Consistently monitor open rates, click rates, sender reputation, and inbox placement.
  • Segment Data: Segment audiences based on engagement and adjust sending frequency accordingly.
  • Practice Hygiene: Maintain clean email lists by removing inactive subscribers and managing bounce rates.
  • Optimize Content: Craft relevant and compelling subject lines and email content.
  • A/B Test: Continuously A/B test subject lines, content, and sending times to optimize performance.
  • Reduce Volume: Reduce email volume to less engaged subscribers to stabilize open rates.
  • Stay Under Threshold: Stay consistently under the 0.1% spam rate threshold.
  • Check Postmaster Tools: Utilize Gmail Postmaster Tools to gain insights into deliverability issues.
Marketer view

Marketer from Email Geeks shares anecdotal experience that Gmail sometimes plays 'red light, green light' with senders, where open rates for new subscribers or re-engagement sends drop. Recommends reducing volume to less engaged subscribers and focusing on recently engaged subscribers to stabilize open rates, then phasing in less engaged subscribers while monitoring performance.

June 2022 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Marketer from Email Geeks explains that it is a common pattern to see average clicks and opens drop when volume increases, especially when mailing inactive contacts. Also notes changes in Gmail's mail filtering and recommends checking Google Postmaster Tools for insights.

May 2024 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Marketer from Email Geeks warns that continuing to send to underperforming segments while struggling with delivery can worsen the situation. Also advises that declining open rates indicate an unhealthy stream, which can lead to temporary blocks and eventually the death of the email stream.

February 2025 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Marketer from Email Geeks believes Gmail is becoming stricter with spam rate thresholds, especially for domains fluctuating between 0.1% and 0.3%. Suggests focusing on best practices to consistently stay under the 0.1% threshold to regain previous open rates.

April 2021 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Marketer from Email Geeks advises segmenting data to see which groups aren't opening/clicking anymore, starting with sign-up time period. Suggests reducing sends to segments that were previously engaged. Also notes Gmail tightens filters during the holiday season and advises sending less during this time.

February 2023 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Marketer from Email Geeks suggests that the drop could be a false perspective, possibly due to Google caching more trackers. Recommends checking for machine-opens in past data. Further suggests that if click and conversion rates remain the same, then it may be a false opening rate, but if clicks/conversions have also dropped, then a more serious issue is at hand.

July 2022 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Email marketer from Email Expert Forum responds that irrelevant or misleading subject lines can cause recipients to ignore emails. Stresses the importance of crafting clear, concise, and compelling subject lines that accurately reflect email content.

November 2023 - Email Expert Forum
Marketer view

Email marketer from Digital Marketing Institute suggests that increased email frequency without relevant content is a major reason for decreased open rates. They recommend analyzing engagement metrics to identify the optimal sending frequency for different segments.

February 2024 - Digital Marketing Institute
Marketer view

Email marketer from Neil Patel's Blog states that not A/B testing subject lines and content can lead to stagnant or declining open rates. Recommends continually testing different elements of emails to optimize performance and engagement.

October 2023 - Neil Patel's Blog
Marketer view

Email marketer from Email Marketing Forum suggests that a sudden decrease in open rates could be due to changes in user behavior. States that users may be more selective about opening emails due to increased email volume or changing interests.

October 2021 - Email Marketing Forum
Marketer view

Email marketer from Marketing Over Coffee podcast mentions that deliverability issues, such as emails landing in spam folders, can directly lead to reduced open rates. Recommends monitoring sender reputation and adhering to email best practices.

August 2022 - Marketing Over Coffee Podcast
Marketer view

Email marketer from Reddit explains that sending too many emails to the same subscribers can lead to email fatigue, resulting in lower open rates. States that segmenting audiences and tailoring content is crucial to avoid overwhelming recipients.

June 2022 - Reddit
Marketer view

Marketer from Email Geeks shares that they have always begun to see a decrease in engagement as the holidays approach. Suggests that people's inboxes start to be crowded and they are overwhelmed, which causes opt outs to go up, and open/click rates to decrease, implying a seasonal trend that affects metrics.

February 2022 - Email Geeks
Marketer view

Email marketer from Reddit suggests that Gmail might have tweaked its algorithm, leading to emails being filtered differently. They point out that even with good sender reputation, algorithm changes can impact open rates.

February 2025 - Reddit
Marketer view

Email marketer from MarketingProfs responds that users might be shifting towards mobile devices for reading emails. Suggests that tracking mobile vs. desktop open rates separately may show a shift, where desktop rates are down and mobile is up.

June 2022 - MarketingProfs

What the experts say
4Expert opinions

Experts attribute sudden decreases in Gmail open rates to potential issues such as emails being filtered into the bulk folder, Google not pre-fetching images, or deliverability problems that may be early warning signs. They emphasize the importance of consistently measuring inbox placement, checking sender authentication and reputation metrics, and examining factors like email volume, IP address changes, and list hygiene.

Key opinions

  • Bulk Folder Placement: Emails may be going to the bulk folder instead of the inbox.
  • Image Pre-fetching: Google might not be pre-fetching images, indicating a lower sender reputation.
  • Early Warning Signs: Decreasing open rates can be early warning signs for deliverability issues.
  • Inbox Placement Measurement: Consistently measuring inbox placement helps identify changes.
  • Adverse Factors: Increased volume, IP changes and poor list quality affect delivery.

Key considerations

  • Investigate Bulk Folder: Check if emails are landing in the bulk folder.
  • Monitor Image Pre-fetching: Monitor if Google is pre-fetching images for your emails.
  • Early Detection: Address deliverability issues early to prevent larger problems.
  • Measure Inbox Placement: Consistently measure inbox placement, not just deliverability.
  • Check Authentication: Check your authentication practices and reputation metrics.
  • Check List Quality: Examine email volume, IP address changes, and list hygiene.
Expert view

Expert from Email Geeks states that these issues might be early warning signs for deliverability problems, and catching them early can mean the fixes are much smaller and less intrusive.

March 2023 - Email Geeks
Expert view

Expert from Email Geeks suggests investigating if mail is going to the bulk folder and notes inbox testing inaccuracy. Also suggests that mail might be going to the inbox, but Google is not prefetching images. Also points out Validity's complaint rate might not be specific to Google, suggesting a need to dig into address collection and hygiene processes if the complaint rate is high.

April 2021 - Email Geeks
Expert view

Expert from Spam Resource shares that factors like sudden increases in email volume, changes in sending IP addresses, and poor list hygiene will adversely affect gmail delivery and should all be checked.

February 2024 - Spam Resource
Expert view

Expert from Word to the Wise explains that consistently measuring inbox placement (and not just deliverability) over time helps to identify open rate changes. They also suggest looking at authentication and reputation metrics alongside volume changes.

March 2023 - Word to the Wise

What the documentation says
6Technical articles

Decreasing Gmail open rates are linked to several factors identified in documentation. These include more aggressive promotion tab filtering, changes in sender reputation, poor list hygiene, the impact of Apple's Mail Privacy Protection, blocklisting, and hitting spam traps. Addressing these issues requires proactive monitoring, list cleaning, adherence to best practices, and adapting to changes in email privacy.

Key findings

  • Promotion Tab Filtering: Gmail's promotion tab may be filtering more emails, reducing open rates.
  • Sender Reputation: Changes in sender reputation can negatively affect inbox placement.
  • Poor List Hygiene: Poor list hygiene leads to lower engagement and open rates.
  • Mail Privacy Protection: Apple's Mail Privacy Protection inflates open rates, affecting metric accuracy.
  • Blocklisting: Being listed on blocklists reduces deliverability and open rates.
  • Spam Traps: Hitting spam traps damages sender reputation and deliverability.

Key considerations

  • Check Promotion Tab: Ensure emails aren't mistakenly categorized as promotional.
  • Monitor Sender Score: Monitor sender score and address deliverability issues.
  • Clean Email List: Regularly clean email lists to remove inactive subscribers.
  • Adapt to MPP: Adapt how email performance is evaluated due to Apple's Mail Privacy Protection.
  • Check Blocklist Status: Check blocklist status and take steps to be removed if listed.
  • List Hygiene: Practice proper list hygiene and obtain explicit consent from subscribers to avoid spam traps.
Technical article

Documentation from Spamhaus explains that hitting spam traps can severely damage sender reputation and negatively impact deliverability and open rates. They advise practicing proper list hygiene and obtaining explicit consent from subscribers.

December 2021 - Spamhaus
Technical article

Documentation from Mailchimp explains that poor list hygiene can lead to lower engagement and open rates. Mailchimp recommends regularly cleaning your email list to remove inactive subscribers to improve deliverability and engagement metrics.

December 2024 - Mailchimp
Technical article

Documentation from Litmus responds that Apple's Mail Privacy Protection (MPP) inflates open rates by preloading images, making it harder to accurately measure engagement. The documentation notes that this affects overall metrics and requires a shift in how email performance is evaluated.

December 2024 - Litmus
Technical article

Documentation from Google Support explains that Gmail's promotion tab filtering might be catching more promotional emails, which reduces open rates as many users don't actively check this tab. They recommend ensuring emails are not mistakenly categorized as promotional.

August 2024 - Google Support
Technical article

Documentation from Return Path explains that being listed on email blocklists can significantly reduce deliverability and open rates. Suggests checking blocklist status and taking steps to be removed if listed.

September 2022 - Return Path
Technical article

Documentation from Validity explains that changes in sender reputation can affect inbox placement and, consequently, open rates. They recommend monitoring sender score and addressing any deliverability issues promptly.

April 2023 - Validity